Sign in
BI

Bumble Inc. (BMBL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue was $246.2M, down 10% y/y but modestly above S&P Global consensus; diluted EPS was $0.33 and Adjusted EBITDA was $83.1M (33.7% margin), near the high end of guidance .
  • Management executed a trust-and-safety product reset (phone and selfie verification, richer profiles) and a quality-over-quantity member strategy; ARPPU improved while total paying users declined as lower-intent users were filtered out .
  • Q4 guidance implies a further revenue decline (Total $216–$224M; Bumble App $176–$182M; Adjusted EBITDA $61–$65M) as the full-quarter impact of quality initiatives is absorbed; margins expected to normalize as targeted marketing spend and hiring resume .
  • The $186M TRA buyout eliminates a large liability at >50% discount to carrying value, improves future cash flows, and increases strategic flexibility; funded from cash on hand .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Revenue came in $246.2M, modestly above consensus and near the high end of the prior Q3 guidance range; Adjusted EBITDA of $83.1M (33.7%) also landed near the top end .
    • ARPPU increased to $22.64 (+6.9% y/y), with Bumble App ARPPU up to $28.27, reflecting pricing and mix improvements aligned to higher-quality member base .
    • Strategic TRA buyout of ~$186M removes long-term obligations at >50% discount to carrying value and is expected to improve cash flow and flexibility; funded from cash .
    • Management quote: “We executed with pace and focus, delivering better than expected financial results, launching significant product updates, and introducing our refreshed brand narrative” — Whitney Wolfe Herd .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Total paying users fell 16% y/y to 3.575M as trust-and-safety measures and reduced performance marketing lowered near-term volume; total revenue declined 10% y/y .
    • G&A rose (non-GAAP G&A $37.3M) partly due to cumulative adjustments for prior-period indirect tax obligations; management expects margins to revert toward historical norms as spend returns .
    • Q4 guidance (Total $216–$224M) signals another sequential and y/y decline (approx. 14–17% y/y), reflecting full-quarter impact of quality initiatives and reduced performance marketing .
    • Analyst concerns on timing for returning to payer/revenue growth; management indicated improvement begins in early 2026 after trust/authenticity work completes .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$247.1 $248.2 $246.2
Diluted EPS ($)$0.13 ($2.45) $0.33
Net Earnings Margin (%)8.0% (147.8)% 21.0%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$64.4 $94.6 $83.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)26.1% 38.1% 33.7%
Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Bumble App$201.8 $201.4 $198.8
Badoo App and Other$45.3 $46.8 $47.4
KPIsQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Paying Users (000s)4,014.7 3,777.2 3,574.9
Total ARPPU ($)$20.24 $21.69 $22.64
Bumble App Paying Users (000s)2,708.4 2,499.8 2,344.1
Bumble App ARPPU ($)$24.84 $26.85 $28.27
Badoo & Other Paying Users (000s)1,306.3 1,277.4 1,230.8
Badoo & Other ARPPU ($)$10.72 $11.57 $11.91
Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global ConsensusActualConsensus*Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)$246.2 $244.8*Beat*
EPS (Primary) ($)$0.33 (Diluted) ; S&P Primary EPS actual $0.2902*$0.3364*Miss*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)Adj. EBITDA $83.1 ; S&P EBITDA actual $70.8*$81.1*Miss*

Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance / ResultChange
Total RevenueQ3 2025$240–$248M $246.2M actual Achieved near upper end
Bumble App RevenueQ3 2025$194–$200M $198.8M actual Achieved near upper end
Adjusted EBITDAQ3 2025$79–$84M $83.1M actual Achieved upper end
Total RevenueQ4 2025N/A$216–$224M Introduced
Bumble App RevenueQ4 2025N/A$176–$182M Introduced
Adjusted EBITDAQ4 2025N/A$61–$65M Introduced
Term Loan PaydownQ4 2025Planned $25M paydown No longer planning paydown post-TRA Withdrawn

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesRecommitment to product innovation; building AI-first stack; >10% uplift in women’s “yes” votes from recommender improvements AI-first cloud-native platform targeted mid-2026; standalone AI product concept under internal testing Escalating investment; roadmap expanding
Trust & SafetyAnnounced major trust-first update planned (verification, coaching) August update launched: phone & selfie verification, richer profiles, coaching hub Intensified; rollout executed
Marketing StrategyShift away from performance marketing; brand/organic focus; margin benefits Brand campaign “For the Love of Love” launched; performance spend to remain minimal; some spend to return Transition to brand/targeted; efficiency focus
Direct BillingQ2 tests; up to 30% adoption on targeted iOS users; potential gross margin benefit Nearly all U.S. members have some direct billing option; continued refinement Scaling; supports margin dollars
Member Base Quality (Beehive Fit)Framework introduced (Approved/Improve/Remove); remove <10% Continued cleanup; retention improving; ARPPU up; aim to move “Improve” to “Approved” Ongoing; positive early signals
Bumble BFFNew app built on Geneva; top friend-finding for Gen Z/young millennials Relaunched BFF with higher retention vs old app; community features to expand in 2026 Building; strategic growth lens

Management Commentary

  • “We are transforming Bumble with a focus on improving member base quality, driving healthy engagement and better outcomes, and embedding innovation and AI into our platform and operations.” — Whitney Wolfe Herd, CEO .
  • “Our third quarter financial results reflect the steps we are taking to align our organization with our product and technology focus, market more strategically, and improve the health of our ecosystem.” — Kevin Cook, CFO .
  • “Our AI-first cloud-native platform, which we expect to launch in mid-2026, will become the engine of Bumble’s future… We’re also building a standalone AI product.” — Whitney Wolfe Herd .
  • “We no longer plan to pay down $25 million of our term loan… [the TRA buyout] greatly improves the company’s strategic flexibility… and improves future cash flows.” — Kevin Cook .

Q&A Highlights

  • Timing of inflection: paying user declines expected to improve in early 2026 as trust/authenticity work completes; near-term headwinds continue through Q4 .
  • Standalone AI product vision: aims to introduce precise search and new AI-first experiences; learnings to be layered into core Bumble apps over time .
  • Direct billing: broadened availability in U.S.; expected gross margin benefit despite revenue headwind from discounted pricing; cost of revenue improved .
  • Member quality uplift: moving “Improve” to “Approved” via better onboarding, verification, and richer profiles drives higher retention and monetization .
  • Margin outlook: current elevated margins are temporary; expect reversion as targeted marketing and specialized hiring resume .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat modestly ($246.2M vs $244.8M*), while S&P’s Primary EPS actual ($0.2902*) was below consensus ($0.3364*); note company-reported diluted EPS was $0.33 (different definition). S&P’s EBITDA actual ($70.8M*) was below consensus ($81.1M*), versus company Adjusted EBITDA $83.1M (definitions differ) .
  • Q4 2025: Company guides Total Revenue $216–$224M and Adjusted EBITDA $61–$65M vs S&P revenue consensus $221.2M*; investors should align modeling with management’s guide given known near-term headwinds .

Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality-over-quantity strategy is working as intended: ARPPU up, retention improving, but payers and revenue face near-term pressure through Q4 as trust-and-safety reset fully lands .
  • Q3 landed near the upper end of guidance with a modest revenue beat vs consensus, but EPS/EBITDA comparisons depend on definitions; use management’s Adjusted EBITDA guidance for near-term modeling .
  • Q4 guide implies another y/y decline; expect margin normalization as targeted marketing and specialized hires resume; watch for direct billing’s positive gross margin dollar impact .
  • TRA buyout removes a large liability (>50% discount to carrying value), enhances cash flow, and increases strategic flexibility—debt paydown plan adjusted accordingly .
  • AI roadmap and BFF expansion are medium-term growth levers; standalone AI product plus mid-2026 platform rollout are key milestones to monitor .
  • Near-term trading: narrative hinges on execution of quality reset, Q4 delivery vs guide, and evidence of payer trends stabilizing into early 2026 .